As we go to press, the stalemate between the two leading candidates for the office of prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) and Ehud Barak (“One Israel”) appears to be intact, with a slight shift toward of Barak. The latest polls predict the following election returns: Netanyahu: 34%, Barak: 36%, Yitzchak Mordechai: 17%, Benny Begin, MK: 3%, Azmi Bishara, MK, (the candidate of the newly formed Arab party, Ba’lad): 2%. Although the minor differences between Netanyahu and Barak may be products of sampling error, neither candidate has been able to acquire the 50% majority needed to avoid a second round of elections.

Four issues dominate the campaign: foreign policy—the permanent status negotiations with the Palestinians and discussions with Syrian aimed at enabling Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon; the economy—a rising rate of unemployment, the continuing recession; religious coercion—sectoral legislation, government appropriations to ultra-Orthodox Jewish religious institutions, induction of yeshiva students; and, finally, the character and personality of Benjamin Netanyahu as revealed during his three years in office.

Netanyahu believes that the issue of Jerusalem remains salient for voters. Hence, he has used the meetings held between Palestinians and foreign diplomats at Orient House in East Jerusalem as well as Arafat’s supposed intervention in the campaign as ploys to exploit the electorate’s concern over the status of Jerusalem.

Barak is concentrating on two main issues: disappoint with Netanyahu and his policies, and socio-economic issues. Netanyahu, in contrast, is focusing his campaign on political issues. As the sitting head of government, Netanyahu’s

Two groups of voters are being targeted in Barak’s campaign: Arab Israelis (about 11% of the electorate) and Russian immigrants (about 15% of the electorate). These segments, if supplemented by ultra-orthodox and first-time voters, are thought capable of deciding the election’s outcome. Barak’s support among Arab Israelis and immigrants falls below that given to Shimon Peres in the 1996 campaign. Russian immigrants lean toward the right, with polls indicating 70% support Netanyahu and Begin.

For the first time in Israel’s history, an Arab Israeli candidate for prime minister has come forth: Dr. Azmi Bishara. His candidacy is damaging Barak’s prospects for winning in the first round. If Bishara withdraws from the race before 17 May, Barak expects a considerable proportion of Arab Israelis to shift their votes in his favour. Bishara will not consider withdrawing unless Mordechai (the Center Party) does so as well. We should note that Mordechai’s candidacy is aimed at moderate-right voters emotionally incapable of voting Labour (“One Israel”) but wishing to replace Netanyahu. As to the ultra-orthodox vote, Barak considers it lost. In sum, a high Arab Israeli vote for Barak, a major shift in Russian immigrant votes to the left, and an apathetic turnout among the ultra-orthodox represent Barak’s aims.

A record number of political parties (33) are competing for Knesset seats. This fragmentation will complicate construction of a stable coalition unless a national unity government is formed. Table 1 indicates the expected Knesset election results by political party.

The weight of the coalition issue promises to spur campaign activity between the two rounds. This campaign is expected to be highly aggressive, as both candidates fiercely vie for potential coalition partners. Each will do whatever is necessary to ensure a heavy turnout of their own supporters on 1 June. Barak fears that ultra-orthodox voters will come to Netanyahu’s aid in the second round to guarantee their participation in a coalition. Therefore, he prefers an apathetic turnout on their part.

One unanswered question pertains to Begin’s and Mordechai’s supporters: “How will they vote in the second round?” Whereas Barak expects Begin’s supporters to abstain from voting in the second round, Netanyahu’s more realistic view is that they will cast their ballots in his favour. Mordechai’s supporters are more problematic. The forecasts predict they will split their votes evenly between the two candidates.

If unable to construct an “opposition bloc,” the Likud will attempt to frighten voters with images of a leftist government ready to “sell the country” to the Palestinians. It will then promise to convene a national unity government, headed by Netanyahu, following the elections. Barak will have little choice but to follow suit. With the basic question before the voter being who will head a national unity government, the contest will be particularly fierce. This situation may work to Netanyahu’s benefit: If it appears, after the first round, that Barak can construct a government without the Likud, the Israeli public may prefer to vote for Netanyahu as a means of forcing the Knesset to declare the establishment of a national unity government containing both major parties.

Notes:

NP Parties participating in Knesset elections for the first time.